Is Crimea Next in Ukraine’s Counteroffensive?

The bombing of the Crimean/Kerch Bridge on Monday 17th of July, 2023, raised some speculation that Crimea could be a target in Ukraine’s counteroffensive.

As of now, that goal is far away. The frontline spans some 1,000 km with heavy fighting and hundreds of casualties per day. On some days, as many as 800 Russians are killed, wounded, or captured by Ukrainians.

Nonetheless, Crimea is the eventual target. Since Russia illegally annexed Crimea in 2014, taking advantage of the turbulent politics of Ukraine after the Maidan Revolution of 2013, Ukrainians insisted that Crimea was still a part of Ukraine. Much of the planet agreed.

So, why is Crimea so important to Ukrainians? And what might an offensive on the peninsula look like?

Photo by Yosh Ginsu on Unsplash

Crimea is an important part of Ukrainian history. It has long been contested. It once belonged to the Ottoman Empire and as a result was predominantly populated with Crimean Tatars, who were forcibly displaced under Joseph Stalin, when Ukraine was a Soviet republic in the Soviet Union.

So, technically, Crimea should belong to Crimean Tatars who made up more than 98 percent of the population for centuries. From Catherine the Great’s occupation to Joseph Stalin’s deportation, Crimean Tatars were slowly replaced by Slavs — primarily ethnic…