How Will Prigozhin’s Coup Affect Ukraine’s Counteroffensive?

I’m sure we’re all wondering, since Yevgeny Prigozhin took 25,000 of his Wagner troops to Moscow, what’s their fate — will they return to Ukraine? Will they come with him into exile (in Belarus, or elsewhere)?

Surely, this would affect the trajectory of Ukraine’s counteroffensive in their favor.

There are a few things to consider if we were to make that assumption.

Let me explain.

Photo by Hassan Pasha on Unsplash

It was officially the Belarussian dictator, Alexander Lukashenko, who brokered the deal between Vladimir Putin and Prigozhin.

There were a number of points to the deal, including the assurance that Prigozhin would be in exile in Belarus and that all charges related to the mutiny would be dropped.

On top of that, the Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, said that Prigozhin’s deal with Lukashenko also splits the Wagner forces into two parts: (1) the troops that did not partake in Prigozhin’s “march for justice,” as he called it, and (2) those who did.

According to Peskov, those who did not take part in the coup, are expected to join the Russian military.

This was the original plan the Russian Defense Minister, Sergei Shoigu, announced on July 1st. Remember, all private military groups were…