How Safe is Prigozhin in Belarus?

Yevgeny Prigozhin has made his way to Belarus.

But we can’t be so sure that Prigozhin is safer in Belarus than he is in Russia. He most certainly can’t stay in Russia because that would further undermine Putin’s grip on power, which is already weakened.

A war that was meant to last three days is not in its 16th month. And there is no sign of an end. Generals sacked. An army embarrassed. An international reputation completely destroyed. And so much more.

So, where can Prigozhin go? And can he survive his “mutiny”?

Let me explain.

Photo by Jana Shnipelson on Unsplash

Lukashenko is officially credited with brokering the deal between Moscow and Prigozhin which ensured that Prigozhin would be in exile in Belarus and that all charges related to the mutiny would be dropped.

This makes some sense since Prigozhin’s relationship with Lukashenko goes back some 20 years.

We see this relationship in three ways:

• Prigozhin’s catering business;
• Joint military exercises; and,
• Prigozhin’s support for Lukashenko

I’ll briefly discuss each in turn.

Lukashenko’s Relationship With Prigozhin

1. Prigozhin’s catering…