2024 is Bleak for Ukraine — How US Aid Could Change Ukrainian War Effort

Jakub Ferencik
5 min readApr 24, 2024

In recent months, Ukraine has been outmanned and outgunned.

Some estimates put the artillery rounds at 5:1, and even, 10:1 for the Russians. According to reports, the shortage of shells was getting so bad that Ukrainians had to fire smoke shells instead in order to repel the Russians.

This is what led the CIA Director, William Burns, to say that if Ukraine does not receive more military aid soon, it “could lose on the battlefield by the end of 2024.”

After the US House of Representatives approved the $61bn aid package, however, things will change for Ukraine in 2024. Ukraine still has a mobilization problem and troops who are fatigued on the frontlines, so this aid is not miraculous in and of itself. That said, it was entirely necessary for Ukrainian resistance to continue.

Make no mistake. Without US — and Western — military aid, Ukraine would not be able to last long against Russia.

“The severity of this moment cannot be overstated. If we do not continue to support Ukraine, Ukraine could lose. They’re really dependent this year on us and without our support, they will not be able to prevail.” — Gen. Cristopher Cavoli

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Jakub Ferencik

Journalist in Prague | Author of “Up in the Air,” “Beyond Reason,” & "Surprised by Uncertainty" on AMAZON | MA McGill Uni | 750+ articles with 1+ mil. views