Member-only story
Will Belarus Join Putin’s War?
Alexander Lukashenko, often dubbed Europe’s last dictator (although that term can be contested by Orban and Erdogan), has been fairly hesitant in involving Belarus’ troops in Ukraine.
Lukashenko has been friendly toward Putin since 2020 because of domestic protests and political turmoil toward his fraudulent election, which international observers rightly claim he lost.
Putin bailed him out, however, and provided a billion euro package that would boost his economy. Lukashenko owes him.
It may be surprising then that Putin has not expected much military support from Lukashenko thus far. With how many troops Russia has been losing (more than 40,000 as of now), that may change.
A Brief History of Lukashenko & Putin’s Relationship
As mentioned above, Lukashenko and Putin have not always been close.
Lukashenko was, for example, highly critical of Putin’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. He argued that using Putin’s logic to defend his annexation, Pskov and Smolensk in Russia should belong to Belarus. Lukashenko may have also been critical of the Crimean annexation because Belarus lost up to $3 billion in foreign exchange fluctuations because of Western sanctions imposed on Russia in the immediate aftermath of 2014.
