Will Belarus Invade Ukraine?

Alexander Lukashenko has been a close ally of Putin since he was ostracized from the West after overruling the democratic election of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya in 2020.

But their relationship has not always been this close. So, before we address Belarus’ potential invasion of Ukraine, I will briefly look at Lukashenko’s views toward Putin in the past in order to create more context for the present.

Protests in Belarus. Photo by Ang Bob on Unsplash

Many have called Lukashenko, Europe’s “last dictator.” His police state is reminiscent of that of the USSR. Many who oppose his rule have to flee to Ukraine and Poland, such as the mentioned Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the exiled opposition leader, who won the democratic vote in 2020.

I was actually able to attend one of Tsikhanouskaya’s talks in 2022 when she came to Bratislava, Slovakia, in May. She seemed tired. And I understand why. She’s been living in exile for some time. Lukashenko’s autocracy is not easy to face.

Why is Lukashenko so Close To Putin?

Lukashenko was opposed to Putin’s annexation of Crimea. Correspondingly, he always stressed Belarussian sovereignty from Russia, arguing for significant linguistic and cultural differences between the two.

But everything changed when Putin offered him a helping hand in 2020, as he did to Ukraine’s…