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Why Putin Chose to Invade
Prior to Vladimir Putin’s large-scale invasion, most of us were thinking the same thing: Putin stationed 200,000 troops alongside Ukraine’s border as leverage in late 2021. This is merely a threat. He can’t be stupid enough to invade a sovereign nation unapologetically on this scale.
Well, we were wrong. He was stupid enough. And he has suffered the ramifications. Or let’s be specific, his army suffered the ramifications.
Putin had more effective ways to sow divisions in Ukraine and stage illegal referenda if he wanted to, but he chose this enormous gamble. Why? And why didn’t he choose the method that was working for him so well before?
In recent years, numerous examples have proven that it is highly effective to rely on disinformation when it comes to influencing the outcome of a sovereign nation’s foreign policy.
However, in Putin’s case, increasingly when he used military means for political gain, very little was done in opposition. This can be seen especially after Georgia in 2008, Crimea in 2014, in Donbas from 2014–2022. That bolstered his use of military force instead of disinformation
Finally, after Russia launched its large-scale invasion, we have seen more serious ramifications. Diplomacy is long, arduous, and does not always lead to the results we hope for.
