Wagner Convoys On Their Way to Russia? — Prigozhin’s Death & the Future of Russia & Ukraine

Jakub Ferencik
4 min readAug 27, 2023

By now, we have all heard the news out of Russia that a private jet crashed with the Wagner leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, and two other top Wagner generals, one of whom was Dmitry Utkon — Wagner’s original founder.

In total, there were ten people on board the aircraft (including three crew members), who died.

Since then, there have been videos surfacing across Telegram, as well as other social media channels, where Prigozhin’s followers are seen threatening Putin.

Wagner convoys have been seen on their way to Russia, with Belarussian forces unable to stop them.

Is another mutiny possible?

Let’s discuss.

Photo by Michael Parulava on Unsplash

In this article, I won’t exactly analyze Prigozhin’s coup, as it is now “old news” (happening just about two months ago). If you are interested, however, I outlined the reasoning for it in this article, titled “Prigozhin’s Genius Withdrawal from an Unwinnable War.”

I recommend reading it to keep up to date. The context is relevant. Knowing about some of the details will help ground these new developments in much-needed context.

Wagner’s Original Purpose & Demise

As of July 1st, every private mercenary company fighting in Ukraine (as well as Africa). was meant to be incorporated into the Russian military. This gave central command in Moscow more control over Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Russian authorities also believe that this would have halted any other figures like Prigozhin from emerging and staging a mutiny against the Kremlin.

Supposedly, Prigozhin was last seen in Africa prior to the bombing of the jet, just north of Moscow.

What was he doing there?

Well, we don’t know.

In his words, he was there to promote freedom (paraphrased) in African countries. In other words, he was there to bolster Russian interests on the continent.

There are reasons to presume that Wagner’s future is coming to an end with the death of Prigozhin and Utkin.

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Jakub Ferencik

Author of “Up in the Air,” “Beyond Reason,” & "Surprised by Uncertainty" on AMAZON | MA McGill Uni | RA for EUROPEUM Prague | 700+ articles with 1+ mil. views