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Should Crimea Be Kyiv’s Next Target? — On the Next Stages of Russia’s War

Jakub Ferencik
4 min readApr 20, 2023

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The next stage of the war will most likely feature a Ukrainian counteroffensive focused on Donbas, an area where fighting has been consistent since 2014 and where Ukrainians have much more experience.

But some have argued that Kyiv should focus on Crimea.

Instead, it seems that Ukraine will do the obvious, by focusing on Donbas and key trade routes there, Ukraine will be able to set the stage up for a massive counteroffensive of Crimea.

Let me explain.

Photo by Gayatri Malhotra on Unsplash

The frontlines in Ukraine have been relatively unchanged for the past six months or so. The majority of the fighting has been in Donbas with some exceptions. They have still not fully captured Bakhmut.

And Ukrainians are not happy with the relative stalemate. They are still planning the counteroffensive.

Presently, the two places experiencing the most intensive fighting include Avdiivka in Donetsk City and Bakhmut, also in Donetsk Oblast. For those who might not be aware, Donetsk and Luhansk comprise Donbas.

But this is not the first time these places have experienced war. So, Ukrainians have experience and defensive strategies that have continued since 2014.

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Jakub Ferencik
Jakub Ferencik

Written by Jakub Ferencik

Journalist living in Prague | Author of “Up in the Air” and “Beyond Reason” on AMAZON | MA McGill Uni | 750+ articles with 1+ mil. views

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