Member-only story
Russia Could Lose Crimea? — On the Possibility of Ukrainian Breakthrough
In the words of Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, “It all began with Crimea, and it will end with Crimea.”
Crimea has always been a target. But some are hesitant of Ukraine’s retaking of the peninsula. For example, US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, warned Ukraine against retaking Crimea because of fears that this would be a “red line” for Putin.
From prior experience, we know that Putin’s threats do not amount to much. So, Crimea still is a target. What’s the possibility that Ukraine would be able to retake the peninsula?
Let’s discuss.
Crimea has about 2.4 million inhabitants. Sevastopol has 547,000 citizens. As you may know, this is where Russia was allowed to outpost its Black Sea naval fleet for some time now.
So, Crimea’s — and Sevastopol’s — strategic importance is primarily in that it gives access to the northern Black Sea and the Sea of Azov (to its east).
Ukrainians know that taking Crimea by sea is impossible. They simply do not have the power to do so.
The problem is that it’s not so easy to launch an offensive by land either. In fact, there are only about three strips of land that Ukrainians could pass through. Much of the land in northern Crimea…
