Not a Victory for Trump, but a Rejection of Democrats — A Path Forward for the Democratic Party

Despite what people say now, the results of President-elect Donald Trump’s win in all seven swing states — along with the popular vote, the Senate, and possibly the House of Representatives (although, that won’t be clear until another week or two) — was indeed unexpected.

That’s mainly because we couldn’t really rely on polls. They have been incredibly unreliable before, even after they have adjusted for the mistakes of failing to predict Trump’s first victory against Hilary Clinton in 2016.

Moreover, Trump’s MAGA movement was indeed losing ground for the months and years prior to the 2024 election. In fact, since 2016, Trump has not won any election. And in 2022, those closely associated with Trump performed very poorly in the Senate and House races.

In my view, this was all good evidence to presume Trump wouldn’t do as well as he did. That and other reasons, to which I will get below, is why I think it’s safe to say this election was not necessarily a vote for Trump. Instead, I believe the evidence points to this primarily being a vote against inflation and the Democratic Party they associate it with.

It was a vote for an alternative to the lived experience of the economy (rather than the macro perspective of the US’ GDP performance), even if it incorrectly assumed that Trump would be able to do something the Democrats couldn’t.