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Could Wagner Invade Ukraine from Belarus?
I recently wrote a post titled, Wait … Prigozhin is Still in Russia? where I outline three erroneous narratives that have formed around Wagner’s mutiny against Russia’s President, Vladimir Putin. One of them was that Wagner’s general, Yevgeny Prigozhin, was in exile in Belarus.
It turns out that Prigozhin is tucked away in St. Petersburg. Although, these things could have changed as of writing (13th of July, 2023).
At the time, those who followed Prigozhin had two options, either to (1) go into exile with Prigozhin or (2) be incorporated into the Russian army.
Despite this, people are still asking if Wagner could launch an invasion from Belarus.
Let’s discuss.
This should go without saying, but nonetheless, I should stress that a lot of these are unknowns. The only people who really know what is going on are probably the people we are talking about here, that is the Belarussian dictator, Alexander Lukashenko; the Russian President, Vladimir Putin; and the Wagner mercenary leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin.
That said, Prigozhin’s coup on Moscow was the largest threat to Putin’s rule we have seen. Of course, much of that threat was perceived.
In reality, Putin wasn’t really threatened at the moment because there were only 5,000 to…
